RedBus • Dual-Funnel UPI 1.0 Performance Analysis

Dynamic QR & Intent Base vs Bank Execution Base • September 15 – October 4, 2026
Merchant: RedBus (MakeMyTrip / Ibibo)
Merchant ID: 01KXD22ND807AKDSXG3SV7AT4J
Gateway: Pine Labs / Axis Bank (setu.j5xbev@pineaxis)
Published: October 5, 2026 • Setu Payments Hub
Generated Links
7,394
₹85.06 L Initiated Intent
Intent SR
84.05%
6,215 Paid / 7,394 Links
Pre-Scan Drops
898
₹10.57 L Lost GMV
Bank Attempts
6,496
₹74.49 L at Switch
Execution SR
95.67%
6,215 Paid / 6,496 Att.
Realized Revenue
₹70.92 L
₹3.57 L Bank Fails
1. Dual-Funnel Macro Architecture & Production Ramp Milestones Source: anjalagam_single_use_upi_link & anjalagam_payment

Setu generated 7,394 single-use UPI links and dynamic QRs for RedBus between Sept 15 and Oct 4. 898 users dropped off before scanning or opening their UPI app (12.14% pre-scan drop rate). The remaining 6,496 checkouts attempted at the bank switch converted at an exceptional 95.67% SR.

Date Ramp Phase QRs Created Bank Attempts Settled (Paid) Pre-Scan Drops Intent SR (%) Execution SR (%) Collected GMV Pre-Scan Lost GMV
2026-09-18 Pre-Launch Testing 17 0 0 17 0.00% N/A ₹0 ₹19,957
2026-09-21 Staging Validation 4 0 0 4 0.00% N/A ₹0 ₹4,890
2026-09-22 Production Pilot 296 256 247 40 83.45% 96.48% ₹2,39,450 ₹45,120
2026-09-28 Scale Ramp 1 4,399 3,864 3,696 535 84.02% 95.65% ₹42,18,743 ₹6,28,450
2026-09-29 Scale Ramp 2 2,678 2,376 2,272 302 84.84% 95.62% ₹26,34,225 ₹3,67,205
Total Sept 15 – Oct 4 7,394 6,496 6,215 898 84.05% 95.67% ₹70,92,418 ₹10,56,723
2. Bus Ticket Tiers & Pre-Scan Drop-off Vulnerability
Category QRs Created Pre-Scan Drops Drop Rate Intent SR Execution SR
Budget (< ₹500) 1,280 147 11.48% 85.86% 97.00%
Standard (₹500 - ₹999) 3,038 367 12.08% 84.30% 95.88%
AC Sleeper (₹1k - ₹2k) 2,192 266 12.14% 83.35% 94.86%
Long Haul (₹2k - ₹5k) 805 108 13.42% 82.24% 94.98%
Premium (₹5k+) 81 12 14.81% 81.48% 95.65%
3. Payer App Conversion (Switch Level)
Payer App Share Attempts Execution SR Collected GMV
PhonePe 53.8% 3,495 95.08% ₹37,50,867
Paytm 44.6% 2,895 96.37% ₹32,32,750
CRED 1.5% 98 95.92% ₹1,05,459
Other / Web 0.1% 8 100.0% ₹3,343
4. Bank Switch Failure Taxonomy (281 Attempted Drops)
Code NPCI Error Description Type Drops Share (%) Lost GMV Root Cause & Action
Z9 INSUFFICIENT FUNDS IN REMITTER ACCOUNT BD 171 60.85% ₹2,21,578 Customer balance lower than ticket price. Trigger instant RuPay Credit on UPI fallback.
ZM INVALID / INCORRECT MPIN BD 48 17.08% ₹64,888 PIN typo. App intent enables instant retry without seat release.
SA TRANSACTION NOT PERMITTED (OD/NRE) BD 13 4.63% ₹17,737 100% rejection on Overdraft and NRE accounts. Pre-screen account types upfront.
B3 / XP CARDHOLDER / MINOR LIMIT EXCEEDED BD 10 3.56% ₹13,648 Youth/minor account restrictions or issuer cardholder limits.
TD TECHNICAL DECLINES (CBS Offline, Gateway) TD 11 3.91% ₹14,136 Near-zero technical downtime (0.17% overall switch error rate).
5. Multi-Channel Action Items & Recovery Playbook
1. Eliminate Dynamic QR on Mobile Web (mWeb) — Force Intent
898 users abandoned generated checkout links before attempting payment. Rendering QR codes on mobile web forces customers to take screenshots and upload them to scanner apps, creating fatal friction.
Action: Detect mobile user-agents and automatically invoke native UPI intent (upi://pay), bypassing QR code generation entirely on mobile browsers.
2. Automated WhatsApp / SMS Checkout Recovery for >₹2,000 Fares
Pre-scan drop-offs jump to 13.4% on Long Haul (₹2k–₹5k) and 14.8% on Premium (₹5k+) tickets (₹3.66 Lakh unrealized GMV).
Action: If a generated link remains unattempted after 90 seconds, dispatch an automated WhatsApp / SMS payment nudge before the seat reservation expires.
3. Dynamic Fallback to RuPay Credit on UPI for Insufficient Balance (Z9)
60.85% of bank attempt failures (171 drops, ₹2.22 Lakh lost) are due to Z9. RedBus already enjoys a 94.42% conversion rate on Credit on UPI.
Action: When Z9 is returned, trigger an instant bottom sheet: "Account balance low. Complete booking using RuPay Credit on UPI" without losing the bus seat.